September 30, 2022

The Chasm Between A.F.C. and N.F.C. Teams Seems Huge — for Now

Led by offenses both expected (the Bills and Ravens) and surprising (the Jaguars), A.F.C. teams have dominated early-season scoring while perennial N.F.C. contenders have shown their age.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered the 2022 N.F.L. season among the shortlist of contenders to win the N.F.C. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, entered the year as perennial A.F.C. doormats still recovering from the brief coaching tenure of Urban Meyer, who managed the team in 2021 the way a bored child manages a pile of plastic soldiers.

The Jaguars are currently outperforming the Buccaneers. Both teams are 2-1, but the Jaguars have outscored their opponents by 46 points, while the Buccaneers have outscored theirs by just 24. The Jaguars’ offense, led by the second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, has outscored the Tom Brady-led Buccaneer offense 84 to 51.

The Buccaneers are not the only traditional N.F.C. favorites off to a sluggish start, nor are the Jaguars the A.F.C.’s only surprise. Those teams are just examples of the wide disparity in quality between the N.F.L.’s conferences right now. In college football terms, the A.F.C. looks like the Big Ten Conference or the Southeastern Conference, while the N.F.C. looks more like the Tumbleweed Valley Affiliation.

Signs of the gap between the two N.F.L. conferences can be found everywhere. A.F.C. teams occupy six of the top eight spots in net point differential — the measure of points scored against points allowed — including first place (Buffalo Bills +53) and second (Jaguars +46).

Advanced metrics tell a similar story: The A.F.C.’s Bills, Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens occupy the top three spots in Football Outsiders’ rankings for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, an efficiency statistic, with the N.F.C.’s 3-0 Philadelphia Eagles in fourth.

Even the sportsbooks agree. The Bills remain the Super Bowl favorites with 4-to-1 odds, despite a divisional loss on Sunday to the undefeated Miami Dolphins. Kansas City, which also lost in Week 3, is the oddsmakers’ runners-up, at 15-to-2. The Eagles lead all N.F.C. teams with 8-to-1 odds. Of course, N.F.C. teams are helped by the fact that weaker competition means better odds for the front-runners.

By any standard, the Eagles are the only N.F.C. team that is truly exceeding expectations, except perhaps for the 2-1 Giants, who had none. The Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers are struggling to muster a few points per game. The defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, though leading the N.F.C. West at 2-1, were blown out by the Bills in the season opener and may be buckling beneath their roster model of four superstars supported by 48 unknowns working for minimum wage plus tips.

The difference between the conferences may best be exemplified by the Denver Broncos. Like the Buccaneers and the Packers, the Broncos are led by a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback (the new arrival Russell Wilson) and are off to a sputtering offensive start. But the team is also 2-1 thanks to tight defense and narrow victories. The Broncos play in the A.F.C. however, so their slow start is perceived as nearly catastrophic, while the Buccaneers and Packers are still expected to cruise to preordained division titles.

The A.F.C.’s strength lies in large part with its exciting young quarterbacks: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, the rapidly rising Lawrence and others.

The N.F.C. is home to Brady and Aaron Rodgers, future Hall of Famers grouchily fortifying their positions among the league’s all-time pantheon, followed by a crowd of familiar veterans with well-established limitations. Jalen Hurts of the Eagles is the only young N.F.C. quarterback playing well right now, though Kyler Murray of the Cardinals keeps things interesting.

Most A.F.C. teams also aggressively improved themselves in the off-season: playoff hopefuls like the Dolphins and Broncos through daring trades, weaklings like the Jaguars, Jets and Houston Texans through multiple first-round draft picks. As a result, the A.F.C. boasts a deep, intriguing pool of second-tier contenders and upstarts. The N.F.C. is downright feudal by comparison.

Look past the Buccaneers, Packers, Rams and Eagles and you’ll find:

The 2-1 Dallas Cowboys, whose familiar foibles make them impossible to take seriously;

The 2-1 Minnesota Vikings, the pre-owned late-model sedan of N.F.L. teams;

The 1-2 San Francisco 49ers, whose best offensive player so far this season has been punter Mitch Wishnowsky;

The 1-2 Arizona Cardinals, a parking-lot pickup team with a playbook of stapled-together cocktail napkins;

The 2-1 Chicago Bears, whose games look like colorized footage from the Great Depression;

The 1-2 Atlanta Falcons, whose salary-cap situation is a ghost story told by accountants around the campfire;

The 1-2 New Orleans Saints, a 2018 fantasy football roster brought to life through the miracle of ill-advised spending;

The 1-2 Detroit Lions, the league’s menacing-but-bumbling Saturday morning supervillains: Coach Dan Campbell is basically Skeletor in camo gear;

And finally, various teams with quarterbacks like Geno Smith, Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones.

The gap between the conferences ultimately points to a wider trend. A.F.C. franchises saw traditional conference powerhouses like the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers starting to crumble a few years ago, sensed a power vacuum and began making their moves.

Many N.F.C. teams, by contrast, appear to just be biding their time until Brady retires, Rodgers fades and the Rams go bankrupt.

There’s also a narrative disparity at work: Young quarterbacks and explosive playmakers simply make A.F.C. teams more fun to watch. Thursday night’s Bengals-Dolphins matchup promises to be a touchdown-a-minute showcase for the likes of Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase, while Sunday’s London game between Kirk Cousins’s Vikings and Jameis Winston’s Saints sounds more like a cavalcade of turnovers and disappointment.

All of that said, the gap between the A.F.C. and N.F.C. may narrow quickly. The Buccaneers’ top three receivers have all been injured or suspended in the last three weeks, and Brady may snap back into form when his supporting cast returns.

Rodgers and the Packers also have a history of solving their problems on the fly. Dak Prescott may return to the Cowboys’ lineup soon and Dallas’s troubles usually don’t culminate until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the A.F.C.’s Los Angeles Chargers, a popular preseason “sleeper” pick, are now coping with some severe injuries. History also suggests that the Jaguars won’t sustain their early-season success. By November, the spotlight may be back on the old familiar faces.

Even if the N.F.C. remains the dreary conference of yesteryear, it’s still guaranteed to send one participant to the Super Bowl. And if that participant is led by Tom Brady, the differences in quality between the conferences are unlikely to matter much.

What People Read

Yvonne Orji Reflects on the End of ‘Insecure,’ and Tells T a Joke

The comedian looks back on her years working on the career-defining show and demonstrates her trademark wit.

YouTube Opens More Pathways for Creators to Make Money on the Platform

The video platform will let more creators earn payments and place ads in Shorts, its TikTok competitor, according to audio from an internal meeting.

Yankees Close In on Division Title, but Still Have Trust Issues

Frankie Montas, Aroldis Chapman and Aaron Hicks are question marks for a team that is on the verge of clinching a first-round bye.

Yankees Clinch a First-Round Bye as Judge’s Wait Continues

A win over Toronto gave the Yankees the American League East title, but Aaron Judge remained stuck at 60 home runs.

Woman Gets 4 Months After Shoving Flight Attendant, Spitting on a Passenger

Kelly Pichardo, 32, will also have to pay more than $9,000 to American Airlines for the altercation, which came as incidents involving unruly passengers unnerved airline workers and the public.

Just For You

How the Passage of Time Softened the Fury Over Diana’s Death

A quarter-century ago Princess Diana’s shocking death provoked outrage at the royal family. Queen Elizabeth’s passing, in contrast, has been draped in civility and respect.

White House Student Loan Forgiveness Could Cost About $400 Billion

The estimate by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office gauged the cost over 30 years, though the bulk of the effects to the economy would be felt over the next decade.

Kushner’s Company Reaches $3.25 Million Settlement in Maryland Lawsuit

The apartment company charged illegal fees and failed to adequately address leaks, mold and rodent infestations in its properties, the Maryland attorney general said.

As Trump’s Legal Woes Mount, So Do Financial Pressures on Him

The lawsuit filed by New York’s attorney general is the latest indication of how an array of investigations is affecting the former president’s business and personal wealth.

N.Y. Attorney General Accuses Trump of ‘Staggering’ Fraud in Lawsuit

Attorney General Letitia James of New York filed a sweeping lawsuit on Wednesday that accused Donald J. Trump, his family business and three of his children of lying to lenders and insurers by fraudulently overvaluing his assets by billions of dollars.

Why Candidates Owe Voters Full Medical Transparency

The principal intent of campaigns is to give voice to the candidates’ positions on major issues. When casting their ballots, voters consider personality, party allegiance, character traits and other factors.

Russians Are Terrified, and Have Nowhere to Turn

In the days since Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilization,” clearing the way for hundreds of thousands of men to be conscripted into his failing war effort, we’ve fielded tens of thousands of messages like these.

How Seriously Should We Take Putin’s Nuclear Threat in Ukraine?

Across almost eight decades the possibility of nuclear war has been linked to complex strategic calculations, embedded in command-and-control systems, subject to exhaustive war games.

Recent

How the Passage of Time Softened the Fury Over Diana’s Death

A quarter-century ago Princess Diana’s shocking death provoked outrage at the royal family. Queen Elizabeth’s passing, in contrast, has been draped in civility and respect.

This Might Not Be a Cold War, but It Feels Like One

Even at their worst moments, the Americans and the Soviets kept talking. Today, U.S.-China contacts are scarce, while Beijing and Moscow move closer together.

Apple Extends Reach With $800 Watch, as New iPhone Inches Along

The Apple Watch Ultra is aimed at endurance athletes, a market dominated by Garmin. Apple also introduced updated AirPods.